Why Would Any Texan Support Risk Assessments Now?

In the last two legislative sessions, there have been bills proposed seeking bail reform.  In both sessions, a major component of reform was the adoption of a risk assessment tool.  In the last couple of years, the Texas Office of Court Administration has even developed their own risk assessment tool called PRAISTX.  

 

The biggest flaw in these risk assessment tools is the use of proprietary black box algorithms to make important criminal justice decisions.  These are the same type of algorithms that Big Data companies use to bombard us with ads every day.  While some might appreciate an algorithm recommending books or television shows, many others have long been against their use in making determinations on insurance rates, and whether someone gets a home loan or credit card.  

A group of some of the largest technology companies in the world (Partnership on AI) have issued a joint statement opposing the use of algorithms as a part of criminal justice reform.  In allowing the public to get a glimpse into the proprietary tool, they pointed out that such tools are good at predicting what groups will do, but are terrible at making predictions about what individuals will do.  They also pointed out that in predicting group behavior, these tools utilize historic information which includes  demographic and socioeconomic data.  Research has now confirmed over the last couple of years that the use of algorithms has been proven to discriminate against the poor, minorities and people who live in certain neighborhoods. Relying on algorithms to make important criminal justice decisions is even more appalling.  

Using an algorithm to determine whether people should be held in jail pretrial will disproportionately affect our most vulnerable communities because they are the same groups that historically have been held in jail preconviction.  The algorithm will continue the historical bias that is built into its analysis

The dangers are magnified in the current COVID-19 crisis, as more crowded jails mean more chances for infection for defendants and correctional officers.  

The pandemic has also spawned a new crisis for our state and local governments as they grapple with lost revenue and the painful realization that they will have to massively cut essential public services.  The adoption of a risk assessment tool would make the budget financial crisis even worse by saddling counties with hundreds of millions of dollars in new costs as they are forced to set up new systems and departments.

A risk assessment tool would  force counties to build and administer the new system, but leaves local governments holding the bag.  New Jersey, a state with about twice the number of people in Harris County, spent $125 million in just the first year it implemented a similar system.  Harris County paid around $100 million as a down payment toward reforms in a settlement of a federal suit.  The costs for Texas would many times higher and the bill will come due at the worst possible time.  

The original supporters of risk assessments have all abandoned these tools.  It is clear now that they should no longer be a part of any criminal justice reform package.  It will lead to more racially biased outcomes in our criminal justice system, and the price tag is far too high.  Why would any Texas support the use of a risk assessment now as a part of criminal justice reform?