Studies Demonstrate Recidivism Rates Increase Using Simple Release

DCJ Study

A new study of bail reform outside New York City — suburbs and upstate — prepared by John Jay College of Criminal Justice’s Data Collaborative for Justice shows that 66% of the people released under bail reform who had a recent prior arrest were re-arrested within two years of their release.

The DCJ study also showed that 67% of defendants who had a recent prior violent felony arrest in the past year who were released under bail reform were re-arrested within two years of their arraignment.

Almost half — 49% — were rearrested for a felony. 

The fact that a study shows that people who have committed crimes tend to continue to commit more crimes is not really surprising.

My analysis of bail reform published by the Manhattan Institute in August of 2022 showed NYC re-arrest rates of close to 70% for people with prior records charged with larceny, burglary, robbery, and criminal contempt while their case was pending.

But DCJ is no conservative think tank. On the contrary, they have been vocal supporters of, and cheerleaders for, New York’s disastrous bail reform laws from the beginning.

To see the study CLICK HERE.

YOLO County Study Updated

The Yolo County District Attorneys' office has issued three reports regarding the use of simple release mechanisms used during COVID-19.  

The original study, from February 2023, looked at random samples of people who were released during emergency zero bail compared to a random sample of people who were arrested for similar charges between January 2018 and December 2019 and posted bail for their release. The study examined recidivism in each group for 18 months after their release. A potential factor that may have affected recidivism was later realized in that of the group that posted bail, those that were released after October 6, 2019, had their recidivism period overlap with the emergency zero bail period. As there was no way to determine whether the emergency zero bail influenced any of this sample regarding recidivism, the study was done again, this time with a random sample of people who posted bail for similar crimes and were released between August 01, 2016, and July 31, 2018. This earlier sample ensured that the recidivism period ended not only prior to the enactment of emergency zero bail, but also before the Covid 19 pandemic was a public concern.

Recidivism over both a 12 month and an 18 month period was examined for a random sample of 100 arrested individuals who posted bail between August 01, 2016 and July 31, 2018, compared to a random sample of 100 arrested individuals who were released on zero bail between April 19, 2020, and May 31, 2021. Offender demographics and original offenses were similar for the comparison groups considering random selection. Recidivism was counted if the individual was arrested anywhere within either 12 or 18 months, for at least one new crime, after being previously released.

In this study, individuals released on zero bail were subsequently rearrested for a total of 169% more crimes than individuals released on bail. The average recidivism rate for those released on zero bail was 78% over 18 months, while the average recidivism rate for those released on bail was only 33% to 44%. Thus, arrested individuals released on zero bail reoffended at an average rate that was 77% to 136% higher than arrestees who posted bail.

Additional highlights/averages:

• More new felonies - Individuals released on zero bail committed new felonies 103% more often than those who posted bail.
  
• More new misdemeanors - Individuals released on zero bail committed new misdemeanors 130% more often than those who posted bail.
• More multiple arrests - Individuals released on zero bail were rearrested more than once in eighteen months 169% more often than those released on bail.
• More new violent offenses - Individuals released on zero bail committed new violent offenses 175% more often than those who posted bail.

To see the report CLICK HERE.